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Finance Magnates 2015 All Rights Reserved How Big is the Retail Forex Market Ron Finberg Brokers (Retail FX) Wednesday, 02.10.2013 12:03 GMT Yesterday, in Part One of our September Forex Industry Review. we analyzed last months MampA, provided our purchase price calculations and analysis for each of the five deals, including Swissquotes purchase of MIG Bank and FXCMs dual acquisitions. Today, we continue to review the previous months activity. BIS Triennial FX Survey Before the flurry of deals in the second half of September, the months headline event was the release of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) Triennial FX Survey. The survey was composed of calculated results from primary dealers from around the world for the month of April, 2013. At an average of 5.3 trillion in average daily FX volume for April, the results crushed the 4.0 trillion figure from 2010 (time to update all those broker websites that refer to FX as a 4 trillion a day market). Among important trends of the survey, the data showed that the UK and US, the two largest regions for FX trading in 2010, held onto their top positions as well as increased market share. This occurred even as originations of trades from non-UK and US countries has increased. As such, despite the growth, firms in these countries are choosing to use UK and US dealers for sourcing liquidity. This could change though, as specifically in Asia, there has been increased demand for localized liquidity pools. Another highlight of the report was the inclusion of retail data. For the first time, the FX survey included statistics of retail volumes, and measured primary dealer volumes with retail driven counterparties. This volume is primarily liquidity that was being sourced for aggregators targeted for retail order flow. The survey indicated that 185 billion, or 3.5 of the 5.3 trillion, was retail flow. Of the 185 billion, 78 billion was registered as FX spot with a slightly smaller amount (74 billion) in FX swaps. Accounting for the fact that the BIS survey uses single counting for its calculation, retail FX spot figures were 156 billion a day when double counted. For comparison, in our Quarterly Industry Report. Forex Magnates8217 Research estimated average retail daily volumes of 325 billion . Accounting for the discrepancy, is the inclusion of retail volumes in our estimates that are warehoused internally by market maker brokers, and arent hedged externally. Taking that into consideration, it represents that more than 50 of retail volumes are executed internally on a market making basis. The actual amount of non-hedged volumes are probably closer to 60-65, as we reason that the BISs 78 billion figure includes order flow from Tier 3 regional banks that are using retail driven aggregators to source liquidity. In regards to these banks, although order flow is being registered as retail flow, it is excluded from Forex Magnates8217 estimates. Other headlines during September Alpari Exits US Retail FX Market . Also occurring in September was the exit of Alpari from the retail FX market. Presently, the broker will continue to provide institutional solutions in the US but transferred its US retail book to FXCM and FXDD (details of possible compensation were highlighted yesterday). The exit was not much of a surprise as it had been rumored since 2012, amid rising costs of meeting US regulatory requirements and the brokers dwindling client base. In terms of the latter, retail assets had fallen over 5 million in 2013, to 10.33 million at the end of July. CFTC SEF Approvals Steady . The CFTC was very busy during September both receiving and approving applications for swap execution facilities (SEF). The facilities are the result of firms rushing to comply with upcoming Dodd-Frank regulations that were set to go into effect today, but have been postponed until November. The rules are aimed at regulating the trading of over the counter swaps, with SEF formulated to provide increased financial safety through the use of pre-trade credit monitoring and a central counterparty (CCP) structure. During the month, major trading venue powerhouses, the CME, ICAP and Thomson Reuters applied for SEF status. Receiving approvals were Integral, Tradeweb, MarketAxess, the ICE, 360T. TrueEX, GFI, Javelin, BGC, and TeraExchange. The firms join Bloomberg, who became the first approved SEF in July . Regulatory Roundup . After being charged by the NFA in 2012 for unfavorable price slippage practices, FXDD followed with a countersuit against the regulator in court. The matter was finally put to rest with FXDD receiving a reduced 2.9 million fine from the NFA in September. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) ruffled some feathers when it notified banks that it was demanding the closing of accounts of customers found guilty of transferring funds via credit cards to trade forex. The policy follows a continuation of anti-forex actions from the RBI as the country has been the target of numerous HYIP fraud. Bank of America Merrill Lynch launched FXPB Mercury platform LCG consolidation continues as it offloaded ProSpreads LMAX rebrands website with institutional focus The Financial Commision announced its inauguaral lis t of participating brokers GAIN Capital officially launches tradable platform to clientsTop 4 Things Successful Forex Traders Do Trading in the financial markets is surrounded by a certain amount of mystique, because there is no single formula for trading successfully. Think of the markets as being like the ocean and the trader as a surfer. Surfing requires talent, balance, patience, proper equipment and being mindful of your surroundings. Would you go into water that had dangerous rip tides or was shark infested Hopefully not. The attitude to trading in the markets is no different than the attitude required for surfing. By blending good analysis with effective implementation, your success rate will improve dramatically and, like many skill sets, good trading comes from a combination of talent and hard work. Here are the four legs of the stool that you can build into a strategy to serve you well in all markets. Before you start to trade, recognize the value of proper preparation. The first step is to align your personal goals and temperament with the instruments and markets that you can comfortably relate to. For example, if you know something about retailing, then look to trade retail stocks rather than oil futures. about which you may know nothing. Begin by assessing the following three components. The time frame indicates the type of trading that is appropriate for your temperament. Trading off a five-minute chart suggests that you are more comfortable being in a position without the exposure to overnight risk. On the other hand, choosing weekly charts indicates a comfort with overnight risk and a willingness to see some days go contrary to your position. In addition, decide if you have the time and willingness to sit in front of a screen all day or if you would prefer to do your research quietly over the weekend and then make a trading decision for the coming week based on your analysis. Remember that the opportunity to make substantial money in the markets requires time. Short-term scalping. by definition, means small profits or losses. In this case, you will have to trade more frequently. Once you choose a time frame, find a consistent methodology. For example, some traders like to buy support and sell resistance. Others prefer buying or selling breakouts. Yet others like to trade using indicators such as MACD and crossovers . Once you choose a system or methodology, test it to see if it works on a consistent basis and provides you with an edge. If your system is reliable more than 50 of the time, you will have an edge, even if its a small one. If you backtest your system and discover that had you traded every time you were given a signal and your profits were more than your losses, chances are very good that you have a winning strategy. Test a few strategies and when you find one that delivers a consistently positive outcome, stay with it and test it with a variety of instruments and various time frames. You will find that certain instruments trade much more orderly than others. Erratic trading instruments make it difficult to produce a winning system. Therefore, it is necessary to test your system on multiple instruments to determine that your systems personality matches with the instrument being traded. For example, if you were trading the USDJPY currency pair in the forex market, you may find that Fibonacci support and resistance levels are more reliable in this instrument than in some others. You should also test multiple time frames to find those that match your trading system best. Attitude in trading means ensuring that you develop your mindset to reflect the following four attributes: Once you know what to expect from your system, have the patience to wait for the price to reach the levels that your system indicates for either the point of entry or exit. If your system indicates an entry at a certain level but the market never reaches it, then move on to the next opportunity. There will always be another trade. In other words, dont chase the bus after it has left the terminal wait for the next bus. Discipline is the ability to be patient - to sit on your hands until your system triggers an action point. Sometimes, the price action wont reach your anticipated price point. At this time, you must have the discipline to believe in your system and not to second-guess it. Discipline is also the ability to pull the trigger when your system indicates to do so. This is especially true for stop losses . Objectivity or emotional detachment also depends on the reliability of your system or methodology. If you have a system that provides entry and exit levels that you know have a high reliability factor, then you dont need to become emotional or allow yourself to be influenced by the opinion of pundits who are watching their levels and not yours. Your system should be reliable enough so that you can be confident in acting on its signals. Even though the market can sometimes make a much bigger move than you anticipate, being realistic means that you cannot expect to invest 250 in your trading account and expect to make 1,000 each trade. Although neither a short-term nor longer term time frame is necessarily safer than the other, the short-term time frame may involve smaller risks if the trader exercises discipline in picking trades. Its a question of risk versus reward . Leg No. 3 - Discrimination Different instruments trade differently depending on who the major players are and why they are trading that particular instrument. Hedge funds are motivated differently than mutual funds. Large banks that are trading the spot currency market in specific currencies usually have a different objective than currency traders buying or selling futures contracts. If you can determine what motivates the large players then you can often piggyback them and profit accordingly. Pick a few currencies, stocks or commodities and chart them all in a variety of time frames. Then apply your particular methodology to all of them and see which time frame and which instrument is most responsive to your system. This is how you discover a personality match for your system. Repeat this exercise regularly to adapt to changing market conditions. Leg No. 4 - Management (Implementation) Since there is no such thing as only profitable trades, no system will trigger a 100 sure thing. Even a profitable system, say with a 65 profit to loss ratio. still has 35 losing trades. Therefore, the art of profitability is in the management and execution of the trade. In the end, successful trading is all about risk control. Take losses quickly and often, if necessary. Try to get your trade in the correct direction right out of the gate. If it backs off, cut out and try again. Often, it is on the second or third attempt that your trade will move immediately in the right direction. This practice requires patience and discipline, but when you get the direction right, you can trail your stops and usually be profitable at best, or break even at worst. There are as many nuanced methods of trading as there are traders. There is no right or wrong way to trade. There is only a profit-making trade or a loss-making trade. Warren Buffet says there are two rules in trading: Rule 1: Never lose money. Rule 2: Remember Rule 1. Stick a note on your computer that will remind you to take small losses often and quickly - dont wait for the big losses.95 of retail Forex traders lose money Is this Fact, or Fiction There is a well known statistic being passed around the Forex community and there is a good chance you8217ve come across it, possibly numerous times. Basically, it says that 95 of Forex traders lose money. For traders who are chasing their dream of becoming a full time Forex trader. or at least trying to achieve even part time trading success this statement can be a bit of a demotivator. If 95 are blowing up their accounts, the statistics imply you also will be become one of the losses. Its not a very comforting thought is it In a world of failing traders, what steps can you take to become the minority who survives and make consistent returns from Forex trading In this article I want to do some investigating. We are going to try verify the claim 95 of Forex traders lose money8217. We8217re going to go over some supporting evidence, and attempt to conclude if this just a phrase used for scare tactics, or if it is actually based on fact. Special thanks to War Room member kin (marketstudent) for helping me compile the information contained in todays article. Lets go through some of the factual evidence we8217ve dug up that supports the statement The Evidence that Forex traders lose money China bans Forex margin trading According to a Reuters article in 2008, the China Banking Regulatory Commission banned banks from offering Forex margin trading to their clients. 8220Eighty to 90 percent of players in Forex traders lose money, through banks providing the service were generally making a profit from it, the banking regulator said.8221 This quote is useful but far from conclusive. The profitability of day traders 8220The profitability of day traders8221 was an article written by Douglas J. Jordan and J. David Diltz, published in the Financial Analysts Journal (Vol. 59, No. 6, Nov-Dec 2003). If you want to read the full article you will have to pay for it, but the abstract reads as follows: 8220We used two distinct methodologies to examine the profitability of a sample of U. S. day traders. The results show that about twice as many day traders lose money as make money. Approximately 20 percent of sample day traders were more than marginally profitable. We found evidence that day-trader profitability is related to movements in the Nasdaq Composite Index.8221 All this really does is support our own views on day trading. Its harder and riskier than the longer term swing trading. But, this still isn8217t enough to nail down the statistic as fact, so lets move on The Cross-Section of Speculator Skill: Evidence from Taiwan 8220The Cross-Section of Speculator Skill: Evidence from Taiwan8221 is a research paper by Barber, Lee, Liu and Odean published on 14th February 2011 on the Social Science Research Network. Using data from the Taiwanese Stock Exchange, the performance of day traders over the 15 year period 1992-2006 was evaluated. The following quote on page 13 is particularly relevant: 8220In the average year, 360,000 individuals engage in day trading. While about 13 earn profits net of fees in the typical year, the results of our analysis suggest that less than 2 of day traders (1,000 out of 360,000) are able to outperform consistently. This is a very alarming statistic, only 2 of these traders were consistently profitable. Remember though, this study only had day traders under the microscope, and didn8217t look any other style of traders. Lets look at some evidence from the brokers themselves, which factors in a broader range of trading styles. U. S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulations The U. S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) introduced new regulation in October 2010 forcing US brokers to lower the amount of leverage that can be offered to customers (maximum limits are 50:1 on major currency pairs and 20:1 on other currency pairs). US forex brokers are now also forced to disclose the percentage of active forex accounts that are actually profitable. Michael Greenberg of Forex Magnates has compiled the data for the first quarter of 2011. The Magnates chart tells us that during the first quarter of 2011, the US brokers listed here reported that an average of 25 of their active accounts where in profit. This is a dramatic increase in percentages that we8217ve seen in the other reports we previous covered. This data however is still not good enough to start base conclusions that 95 of Forex traders lose money on for the following reasons. The chart only shows a handful of US brokers. Aside from Africa, the US actually has the smallest of the retail trading population The data collected is only really from a 4 month period, which is hardly anything The data doesnt specify if withdrawals and deposits are taken into consideration The data doesnt show if those accounts are experiencing growth over time, or are just simply up from their previous 4 month figure To reinforce on the last point, are these profitable accounts over their high watermark line, or have they suffered a massive loss, but recovered a small percentage within the 4 month period therefore considered in profit The new CFTC disclosure requirements are certainly a step in the right direction towards greater transparency in the Forex industry. However, it is important to treat the percentage figures of winning and losing accounts with a degree of skepticism for the following reasons we just stated. All of the brokers will be eager to present themselves in the best possible light 8211 so it would not be too surprising if the figures were subject to some manipulation. If a broker can claim to have a higher percentage of winning accounts than their rivals, this may attract new customers to open up accounts with them. It is important to note that the data only includes 8220active8221 accounts (and the definition of 8220active8221 maybe interpreted differently by different brokers). We have no idea how many new accounts blew up in their first few months of Forex trading and subsequently became 8220inactive8221 (and thus were omitted). Oanda in particular have been guilty of some creative accounting 8211 their data from Q3 2010 showed that a spectacular 51 of accounts were profitable, 18 more than the nearest competitor. However it turned out that included in their definition of 8220active8221 accounts were accounts that contained no trading activity but had simply accrued interest on the account balance The CFTC quickly put their foot down and 6 months later we see that the percentage of winning accounts at Oanda has dropped to 38.1. As disclosure requirements tighten in the future, these winning percentages are expected to fall even further. What conclusions we can make from the data Even with all the digging we8217ve done, and all the evidence we have sifted through, we simply still don8217t have enough data to conclusive confirm that 95 of Forex traders lose money . One thing is for sure, it doesnt look good for day traders. The evidence is basically conclusive that only 2 of day traders can actually consistently turn a profit. This is no surprise to us though, we know day trading is a really stressful and tiring way to approach the market. Day traders are required to sit in front of the computer for hours on end, staring at price charts while waiting for an intraday trade opportunity to present itself. Most of the day trades are placed with the intention of quickly being in and out of the market over a span of a few hours. With so many retail Forex traders engaging in scalping or day trading strategies, I am not surprised that most Forex traders lose money . This combination of high frequency trading. and staring at charts all day is very psychologically taxing. Most day traders are failing because their patience wears too thin. They begin to do silly things in the market out of boredom, fatigue or frustration. Swing traders like us, use the core movements from the higher time frames to take easy, longer term trades. Swing traders ride out the dominant market direction it much stress-less fashion. By doing things like trading with the daily time frame. we don8217t have to spend much time in front of the charts. This gives us the freedom to set our trades, and not have the burden of constantly monitoring them for hours. The idea is to be less involved with the market as a whole. Even though we dont have anything 100 conclusive to support 95 Forex traders lose money its pretty safe to conclude that a high percentage of Forex traders lose money. We have a few variations of this statement that we believe to be justified 100 of traders blow their first trading account 95 of Forex traders lose money during their first year of trading High frequency traders find it harder to make money consistently than long term traders How can you avoid becoming a statistic All of the anecdotal and hard evidence examined in this article strongly suggests that Forex traders lose money and the vast majority of traders are not profitable. It is not really possible to arrive at an exact percentage, but we can see that the most conservative estimate suggests that 87 of traders lose. So the soft quoted 95 statistic may be a little high, but it is fair to say that trading is NOT easy. So how can we as traders avoid being one of the losing statistics. What are the small minority of successful traders doing that everybody else isnt By working with many traders in our Price Action War Room. we8217re always on the front line witnessing how traders are shooting themselves in the foot. Traders who struggle to move forward, and hindering any positive progress with their trading goals all seem to share some similarities. The trader doesnt have realistic expectations about the market The trader is over complicating their analysis, trying to make sense of too many variables or looking too deep into things The trader is in a bad financial situation and trading with real money that is needed for bills, mortgage etc. The trader is not using positive geared money management to ensure winning trades outperform losers The trader is trading on low time frames, chasing price and market noise instead of using more reliable data from the higher time frames The trader is spending way too much time in front of the charts and over trading The trader has no trading plan and therefore no consistency The trader opens positions during news releases hoping to catch big moves The trader doesnt know how to take a loss The trader is impatient and doesn8217t wait for high probability trade setups When you read through that list, how many points are you guilty of I would bet at least a few. Dont worry, youre not the only one. These are everyday issues which traders struggle with and really do hinder their progress of becoming a profitable trader. Most of the problems are generally a result of psychological weakness. Traders are giving in to their inner demons. Unfortunately most traders never build on the character and psychological traits needed to fight these inner temptations. You really need step up, and work on personal improvement to build what it takes to be a good trader. Its like a smoker, drug user, or an alcoholic working to overcome their addictions. Deep down they know its destroying their health and lives. If they8217re not determined and focused enough, its easy to fall back into bad habits and start a vicious cycle all over again. The market will rip you apart, psychologically, in ways you never thought possible. The financial sector is a cruel world which can easily reduce a grown man to tears. Its important that you understand what your weaknesses are, and face them head on. Youre going to have ups and downs in your trading journey, but just remember What doesnt kill you will make you stronger Do yourself a favor and go back through your history and study your losing trades. Get a pen and paper and make a list of what you think you did wrong when executing each of those losing trades. I bet you will see a common problem reoccurring on that list. Have that list in front of you when you go to take your next trade. Use this list as a nice reminder of last few times you8217ve traded against your better judgement. Hopefully that it will deter you from making the same mistake again. Start to tackle your trading weaknesses and self improving to make yourself into a better trader. Give yourself a higher chance of not becoming a fatal statistic. Most Forex traders lose money, but that doesn8217t mean you have to. If you8217re struggling to find a trading system that doesn8217t require you to sit in front of the Forex charts all day. You maybe be interested in our end of day price action strategies. Stop by the war room information page and check out our price action course details. Best of luck to you on your trading journey. Did you enjoy this article It would mean a lot to me if you could share it Please also leave your thoughts in the comment section below
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